Chinese export growth as global trade gains momentum
China's exports in December exceeded forecasts and grew for the second consecutive month, affirming that international trade is entering a recovery phase amidst expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024.
Economists predict a 1.7% increase in China's export growth for December compared to the same period last year, with export growth in November being 0.5%.
In 2023, global trade activity was subdued due to high interest rates set by the central banks of the US and Europe to combat inflation.
Global trade reduction last year amounted to about $2 trillion, a decrease of 8%. Gradually, the situation is changing, and the beginning recovery in exports from China and South Korea confirms optimistic forecasts for global trade.
In South Korea, exports have been increasing for the third consecutive month in December, and Germany's exports have also seen a significant rise.
According to economists' forecasts, central banks in the US and Europe are expected to reduce interest rates by at least 1.5 points during 2024. This will increase global demand for imported goods.
Taiwan also reported an increase in exports for December, driven by heightened demand in the US for products from technology companies.
Official Chinese export and import data will be published on Friday. It is expected that imports increased by 0.3% in December, despite a 0.6% drop in November.
However, the UN has made a preliminary forecast for global trade indicators in 2024, which is "generally pessimistic."