As the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, the next crisis will be a consequence of the problems in the mortgage sector. However, this will be related to commercial real estate, not house prices, Saxo Bank’s strategist Althea Spinozzi explained.

“As the economy gets disrupted by more restrictions imposed by a new Covid-19 outbreak; commercial backed security delinquencies and special servicing rates will continue to rise, causing big losses among many financial institutions. Seven out of the ten biggest U.S. CMBS holders are pension funds and insurers, pointing to the fact that the first to suffer will be our retirement plans,” Saxo Bank’s strategist said in a statement.

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